Buhari’s
First 100 days: Lessons from Obama’s first term challenges.
Emmanuel Uzo Obi
The
expectations of Nigerians are too high. President-elect Muhammadu Buhari has
acknowledged that several times and many leading Nigerians including former
President Olusegun Obasanjo and Professor Remi Sonaiya of the KOWA party share
the same view. As we approach inauguration day General Buhari has left no one
in doubt that he is aware of the enormous challenges he would face as soon as
he is sworn in especially against the background of the prevailing though
erroneous assumption that Buhari is a miracle worker. The expectations of an
overwhelming majority of Nigerians peaked as a result of several years of
hardship and suffering amidst the many economic resources mismanaged by
successive governments.
But
why are we referencing the first term challenges of then President-Elect
Barrack Obama? It is because we see some similarities between the Obama
challenges and the challenges that Buhari presently faces. First, both
candidates’ campaign theme was CHANGE. When President-elect Barack Obama took
the oath of office, there were two ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a
bad economy on the home front as well as deepening financial crisis that
threatened the global economy and much more.
President
Obama immediately after being sworn in, began to create his presidential footprint
by first presenting to congress and building support for an economic stimulus
package and eventually got congress to pass the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act of 2009 by February 2009.The Economic Stimulus plan was
initially for $787 billion and was designed to quickly jump start economic
growth and save between 900,000 to 2.3 million jobs. Its three categories of
spending were:
- $288 billion in tax cuts.
- $224 billion in extended unemployment benefits, education and health care.
- $275 billion for job creation using federal contracts, grants and loans.
The economic stimulus package was disbursed
or spent over a period of ten years. However, to give maximum impact, $720
billion, or 91.5%, was budgeted for the first three fiscal
years: $185 billion in FY
2009, $400 billion in FY
2010 and $135 billion in FY
2011.
The economic stimulus plan exceeded
expectations by the end of fiscal year 2009.The sum of $241 billion was spent
within 2009 as follows: $92.8billion in tax relief, $86.5 billion in
unemployment and other benefits and $62.6 billion in job creation grants. By
the fiscal year 2012, additional funding was approved to raise the total amount
in the economic stimulus plan to $840 billion.
We
have discussed in sufficient detail how an incoming president with tough
challenges can tackle the challenges aggressively with maximum impact on the society.
At the end of the first 100 days of Barack Obama his job approval rating was
73% higher than George Bush and Bill Clinton in their first 100 days. Now we
will go back to discuss Buhari and the expectations of Nigerians.
In
order to fully appreciate how the road leading to high expectations was built,
it is necessary to first re-visit Buhari’s pre-convention speech at the APC
convention and then take a look at the prevailing state of Nigeria at the first
coming of General Buhari on December 30, 1983. For me, this is personal because
I was a public servant in the old Anambra State when governments all over found
it difficult to pay salaries. Although the Buhari-Idiagbon regime did not last
long, many of us heaved a sigh of relief when GMB entered politics in 2002.We
have been in the trenches right from ANPP through CPC and then APC. Our media
battles on the internet were not in vain and the pre-convention speech served
as the needed tonic for a very bruising and victorious battle. We reproduce the
historic pre-convention speech late in 2014. General Buhari declared:
“I have always served Nigeria to the best of my ability. I
have always tried to give more to the nation than it has given me. This is the
principle of service that has guided my public life. Thus, I am not a rich
person. I can’t give you a pocketful of dollars or naira to purchase your
support. Even if I could, I would not do so. The fate of this nation is not up
for sale.
“What I will give you, and this nation is all of my
strength, commitment, sweat and toil in the service of the people. What I can
give you is my all.
“I do not intend to rule Nigeria. I want to democratically
govern it with your help. I seek a Nigeria where Christians and Muslims may
practice their faiths in peace and security; a Nigeria that is just and where
corruption no longer trespasses into our institutions and national behavior and
a Nigeria where our diversity could be used for our national prosperity.
“Nigeria is our home. Let us now turn it into the great
nation we know it can and should be.”
This was a powerful and very inspiring
speech steeped in sincerity and full of hope and no doubt we believe Buhari
spoke from his heart. Nigerians in large numbers saw a glimmer of light from
this man who they first knew, back in late 1983 when governments were already
failing to pay salaries and when impunity and corruption was the order of the
day. From the millions of the unemployed, to the large number of workers with
several months of unpaid salaries; from the retired and aged with minimal
pensions who cannot afford medical care to the poor families that live in
floating slums in places like Makoko and several other similar places across
Nigeria. The father of ten with meagre and several months of unpaid salaries
who lives in a one bedroom which by the way is an unhealthy condition. All
these people who are Nigerians by the way are denied emergency medical care
because they can’t pay the bills. They all have Permanent Voters Cards or PVCs.
Buhari’s pre-convention speech brought hope to millions of these masses
yearning for help and with high expectations.
We have drawn attention to how
President Barrack Obama quickly grappled with his challenges from day
1.Professor Osinbajo the incoming Vice President has put the figure of those
Nigerians at poverty line at 110 million. It is a huge and daunting challenge
that incoming President Buhari will face beginning May 29.But he must not go
back to the old way of doing things. He must record major victories as well as
small victories to build momentum from day 1.Nigerians want to see change and
feel change and President Buhari must not forget the unemployed starting from
day 1.
Here are three broad areas that we have
identified that should gain the incoming president’s immediate attention. How
he manages them will define to a large extent how successful he will be. They
are:
o
Reassess campaign commitments
o
Choose the right people and processes
o
Set an agenda for the first 100 days.
We
quickly note that governing is different from campaigning. The President must
understand that new information he receives once he takes full control of the
government should drive the direction the new government takes. There is also
tendency for incoming governments of a different political party from the
outgoing to jettison all projects of the outgoing government. President Buhari must
attenuate the tendency to abandon anything GEJ.
President Buhari will certainly meet a
polarized national security community. Therefore, his initial first steps once
in office will be to take firm control and resolve old disputes quickly and try
to build momentum. He must not and should not delegate this to anyone. Remember,
once beaten twice shy. In designing or crafting an agenda for the first 100
days, President Buhari must leverage the honey moon period very effectively by
recording small and huge victories immediately.
For the love of our motherland, inspired by the historic pre-convention
speech of His Excellency, President Muhammadu Buhari and feeling the pain and
anguish of the millions of Nigerians living in abject poverty including those
families that live in the floating slums all over Nigeria, here are some proposals
we think needs consideration and which we believe will help the new President
take off running and also which will help him win the support of his political
base (not politicians but the masses, his cult like followers)
o
Creation of a framework for unemployment
insurance scheme for both the public and organized private sector.
o
Monthly unemployment payouts to
registered unemployed until employed using the PVC or national identity card
for authentication of identity.
o
Employment quota to government contractors
to encourage hiring
o
Payment of Unpaid salaries
o
Adjustment of pension benefits of
pensioners and senior citizens to inflation.
o
Prohibit denial of emergency medical
care to all Nigerians
o
Provide a safe environment to
facilitate 24 hour daily operations of the manufacturing sector. This will
involve three eight hour shifts daily.
o
Develop comprehensive medical
assistance scheme for families at poverty line. Families that move out of
poverty should lose this benefit.
o
Relocation and housing for communities that
live in floating slums.
o
Construction of highways should be done
24hours daily within secured environments
The APC National
Chairman, Chief Oyegun is reported to have stated that the FG requires N4.1
trillion to pay arrears of salaries and settle other debts. We recall that the
Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr. Godwin Emefiele recently made a
proposal that the FG should consider selling part of its oil stakes to generate
N14.9 trillion. In addition we note that, a fully operational financial intelligence
system will help monitor the inflow and outflow of cash in the banking system
which would also help and support the ability of the governments to realize
internally generated revenue.
Security
Just as the incoming government
proposes to secure the country we must also look at the broader goal of public
safety. To this end, we propose major institutional changes that will go to the
very foundation of a number of national institutions. Nigeria must break away
from the structures bequeathed to us by colonial masters for their own
purposes. Nigeria needs newer institutions with a new orientation and training
which will respond to the needs of a fledging democracy in the 21st
century. These new structures must be free and not lend themselves to manipulation
by politicians for the purposes of repression and oppression of political
adversaries and free from political interference. For example, new systems must
be developed such as:
o
National Public Safety System which
must include the Fire Service, Emergency Medical Service ambulances as well as
police agencies.
o
New National Police System that will
include state and municipal police agencies.
o
New/reinvigorated Federal Law
Enforcement Agencies
o
911 Emergency Communications Centers
Public safety in
Nigeria we propose should now be a shared partnership with the organized
private sector. This arrangement will now see two different kinds of private
sector participants namely uniformed armed and unarmed agencies. The use of
arms by private security agencies must be regulated by the federal government
and officers must receive the same training, certification and re-certification
as government employed officers. Training which a critical component in the
proposed set up should be through new police academies that will operate within
every state owned polytechnic and college of technology in Nigeria. Their role
should be to provide basic law enforcement training (B.L.E.T.) to those
interested in the law enforcement profession using a new curriculum different
from the curriculum in existing police colleges or academies. In short, we
propose that the present police culture must not be imported into these new
institutions. We are in the era of democratic policing and change must start
from the foundation in a different direction and away from old colonial policing
procedures and practices. Our foreign investors must breathe an atmosphere of a
safe and conducive environment that promotes big businesses as well as small
businesses, and tourism 24/7. (24 hours a day,7 days a week).
Anti-
Corruption Strategy:
A critical component of an
anti-corruption strategy for Nigeria must include a business process
re-engineering in all ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) at all levels
of government and the creation and adoption of an e-government infrastructure.
President
Buhari and the Press.
A good press relationship from the
onset cannot be overemphasized. President Buhari needs public understanding in
order to govern and there also needs to be good managing of the president’s
message. Here we note that the President currently enjoys the support of the
huge and domineering presence of two powerful online mediums such as the Sahara
Reporters and the Premium Times. This relationship must not and cannot be taken
for granted and the incoming president’s media team must foster and build this
relationship in order to ensure continued support for the Buhari presidency as
President Buhari grapples with the challenges of re-building and re-setting
Nigeria.
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